Unrealistic sellers

[Dave W]

We've talked about unrealistic eBay and Reverb prices. What about other forums? Have you noticed how few of the listings ever sell? They just keep getting bumped, I guess until the seller gets tired. Do people not understand that if it goes for months without selling, the price is too high? Either that, or they need a much wider audience, like eBay.

TB isn't any worse than guitar forums, but for example, somebody listed a Fender AV '63 P for $1800 a day or two ago. They were $2000 MAP when they were discontinued last year and anyone could buy one for 15% below that with a little effort. Why would anyone pay 90% of MAP used? Then there's the guy who has had an 85 Explorer bass listed for over eight months now, he's finally lowered the price to $1400 plus shipping. And there's a guy who has been trying for months to sell a 98 MIM P for $600 because it's mint. Talk about dreaming!

There's a guy at MLP who's been trying to sell a 76 Strat and a 66 Epi Embassy for months. The Strat has worn frets, a ski jump neck and the whammy bar broken off in the hole. He wants $3200. The Embassy is a Reranch refin in a non-original case, allegedly refinned in the original cherry but doesn't look it. He's lowered the price from $6600 to $5750. What a bargain!

I still don't get why people think their "upgrades" increase the value, especially when they've sold off the original parts. You bought the bass (or guitar), you swapped out the pickups because you weren't satisfied with the sound, now you're selling it because you're still not satisfied, but you think I should pay more for your "upgrades." Nope!

[Granny Gremlin]

Oh there's a local (now owned by ebay) free classifieds site (like a more modern craigslist) that has become lousy with overly optimistic, to put it diplomatically, flippers.  You have to be really fast to score a good deal (like I managed to with a Garnet Sessionman FTR head that came up when I wasn't even looking yet - I was missing my old Sessionman PA and then the version I really wanted jumped out at me 5 klicks away for a reasonable price - even talked the dude down another 100 because there was another one 3 hours drive away - paid the local guy 50 more than the other guy's ask to save the drive.... also the local one was the one I really wanted - earlier version with fuzz vs master volume).

There's a Canadian Guitar board I'm on (as is at least 1 fellow Cannuck Outposter) where the asks vary considerably from good deal through theseischeaperonReverbyaknucklehead.  It's mostly a handfull of sellers I have learned to avoid; the ones who have all the cool shit.  I guess they spend so much on getting all the toys that they need to maximise the return.  I have made many a good deal on there though.  There's one guy who tortures me because he's so close to me and has all the stuff I wish I could buy, but his prices are stupid.  Another dude in another province has ridiculous high end stuff that he prices on the high side (he's rremote so it costs him more, I get it but that don't mean I need to pay that) that I stopped trying to deal with after he renegged on a couple small parts transactions, once agreed (like he had just PMed me his email for payment), because someone else came along who wanted a larger lot of stuff or something.

Even ebay.  Used to be all or most ofthe listrings for a given item were in the same ballpark, and it was a matter of figuring out whioch was the cheapest shipping cost.  People have stopped tracking prices and just throw any crazy number on there.  There's a few things I am, looking for right now, regularly sell for 150ish and people refuse to come down from 250 - 400.  I can wait; the shit ain't rare or noffin.  It's not just the Flower pot guy anymore; he used to be a lone coot, but he has copycats now.

[clankenstein]

New old stock quality tubes have suffered from price bloat recently

(corrected URL)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/CV4004-M8137-MULLARD-MITCHUM-R1B2-BOX-PLATE-NOS-VALVE-TUBE-1PC-O16/371810808679?epid=1023312762&hash=item5691a6b367:g:uGUAAOSwJ7RYS-tj

[amptech]

New old stock quality tubes have suffered from price bloat recently -http://https://www.ebay.com/itm/CV4004-M8137-MULLARD-MITCHUM-R1B2-BOX-PLATE-NOS-VALVE-TUBE-1PC-O16/371810808679?epid=1023312762&hash=item5691a6b367:g:uGUAAOSwJ7RYS-tj

Link does not work here, but if you mean the seller jmg744 that is a fair price (GBP 95) for a M8137? Or am I missing something?

[Dave W]

A new one today at MLP: 69 Competition Orange Mustang (guitar) for a mere $2850. 

Oh yeah, a few months back some guy on TB put his recent (2013?) Flying V bass up at $3500. Riiiight. He said he liked it but they were so rare he thought he ought to sell it.    They were $1300-1400 new and hardly anyone bought them! At least he didn't keep bumping it.

[Dave W]

Cruised the listings at a few forums today, and I think we have a new champion. A guy at TB has his Ibanez Talman TMB30 for sale. He replaced the hardware with Hipshot, replaced the P/J pickups with Van Zandts, which aren't that expensive, put on a new pickguard, and sanded the neck down so it isn't as chunky. In short, he ruined whatever original value the bass had in order to make it his own, and now he doesn't like the result.

New price for a Talman TMB30? $180. His asking price? $650.   

[gearHed289]

New price for a Talman TMB30? $180. His asking price? $650.   

Hey, that's the price you pay for "upgrades". 

[Psycho Bass Guy]

Ask him if it's good for metal...

[Dave W]

Hey, that's the price you pay for "upgrades". 

Ask him if it's good for metal...

I plugged in a $200 Talman (long scale with preamp) a couple of years ago at a store. The preamp sounded like what you would expect. Still, not bad at all for a $200 bass. If only it were shaped like a BC Rich Bich then I would have bought it for my non-existent metal band.

[Granny Gremlin]

There's been a reasonably clean but insanely overpriced natural Gibson G3 in the local online classifieds for the last quarter, if not more.  Currently asking C$2450 (about 1840 US, last one on ebay went for 945, so almost double).  IIRC it started out closer to C$3k.

[eb2]

The thing that I have been finding curious and alarming is the number of higher end but nosebleed priced things getting put up on eBay from Japan. Most sit there on Fantasy Island but for ages that was a one way street.  Nothing ever went to Japan and was offered for sale to cone back. So while the prices are high they're actually low for their market. It suggests to me the first wave of rats getting off a sinking ship.  And that ship is a vintage/high end guitar market that has been based on speculation for decades, and it's sailing into a potential global recession with an aging, shrinking and soon dying market. Add 40 years of vintage ri and custom shop floating around, and even custom shop special orders being loads less, we got some fun times coming.

[Granny Gremlin]

Yeah, any Greco from Japan (99% of Grecos on ebay) costs as much as buying a real Gibson (used, but so are the Grecos) locally, so why bother? Never mind the actual Gibsons.  Still kicking myself for sitting on the fence too long and missing the last 2016 ltd ed copper fin non-rev Firebird at some American online seller 2-3 months ago.  800ish new (it had full size buckers in it though, and all black hardware).  Just the bodies alone are going for 699 on Stratosphere.

This is my favorite, got all excited when I first saw it then looked at the pics: https://www.ebay.com/itm/1970s-Greco-Firebird-Non-Reverse-Electric-Guitar-Ref-No-1358/183526556793?hash=item2abb090479:g:vLMAAOSwrwJbny1~:rk:1:pf:0

Not one of the better Grecos; the way that separated looks like plywood body.  Been up for months (initially higher priced).  Part that shit out already.

[Dave W]

I don't understand the high priced ordinary stuff from Japan. If you look at the sold listings for any particular model, they don't seem to be selling at all. I filter them out of any search. OTOH it's far from clear to me that the vintage market is declining.

[Granny Gremlin]

I figured the Japanese thing was all about their market over there - stuff generally costs more due to various economic factors (negative interest anyone? wrap yer brain around that one), and that's in addition to Gibsons being more expensive on account of import to the furthest place on earth from the factory just about.  Then Grecos, being generally accepted as the best consistent Gibson copies readily available, go up relative to that.  I mean, if a Gibson Firebird is going to cost you 2.5 to 4k (even a used newish one) then paying 1.5k for a Greco seems like a good deal.... though you figure people would just buy new from a US site but maybe there's some import taxes that ruin it, or it's the stigma that you have to try before buy so it becomes not an option (I know some collectors like that).

What annoys me most about those sellers is the multiple listings for the same item with various price points, like I can't even begin to figure out how they think that is working for them. Because yeah, like Dave said, I don't see any of those listings when you filter by sold.

One thing that has occurred to me though, is that it's a mental long game thing.  Kinda like the Flower Pot Guy's schtick but on a larger scale.  It's been the new thing online, and I see it in other places too.  You get people used to seeing such high prices and the inflated rates become normalised and then people eventually start buying.  It's a long game, but now since ebay eliminated listing fees, it's become free to play that shit game so more people do.  I was happy at the time when they eliminated those fees but it appears this sort of thing may have been an unintentional consequence.  Ebay is not motivated to do anything about it either - from their perspective prices going up = more revenue so they will let it happen.

Who still wants to argue about free market economics?

[Dave W]

....

What annoys me most about those sellers is the multiple listings for the same item with various price points, like I can't even begin to figure out how they think that is working for them. Because yeah, like Dave said, I don't see any of those listings when you filter by sold.
...

Are you talking about the same item (at different price points) by different sellers in Japan? From what I've read, the item is at a major retailer, these sellers don't own the item. They hope you'll buy it at their jacked  up price, then they'll go buy it at retail and ship it to you. They're hoping for someone to bite even though it's a long shot.