Gibson's Credit Rating

[dadagoboi]

analysis of a Moody's report...by a bass player.  Does not look good:

http://www.ericgarland.co/2016/09/27/gibson-rating-moodys/

[TBird1958]

You can only hope that it'll get sold - 


Henry J, I truly dislike you for utterly destroying Gibson.

[uwe]

Ouch. Worse than Turkey. Seven notches worse than Turkey to be exact.

http://fortune.com/2016/09/24/moodys-turkey-credit-rating/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating

In a range of 21 possible long-term bond ratings by Moody's, Gibson is now at the 4th lowest, the lowest meaning already bankruptcy, the second lowest indicating imminent bankruptcy. They are at "extremely speculative" now, the next downgrade will see them at "default imminent with little prospect for recovery". Gibson is now at a place very few companies ever return from.

Chapter 11 beckons. Maybe that is even what needs to be done. I don't see how Gibson can come up with the necessary cash to bond holders and their large scale electronics supplier (who must have been giving them lifesafing infusions for a while) without selling their corporate purchases of the last decades to save their core business. And that presupposes buyers for that stuff. Any takers here for Wurlitzer and Baldwin? Could a faithful recreation of 60ies TBirds - as always vocally clamored for here - do it? 

Goes to show that buying Gibson basses is a better investment than buying Gibson bonds.

It must have been the black hardware that did them in.

[Dave W]

You're better off taking investment advice from Charles Ponzi than listening to anything Eric Garland says. He's the same guy who has been predicting the collapse of Guitar Center any day now, for about three years. It may eventually happen, but not on his schedule.

We know Gibson is overextended, but I'm not buying Eric Garland's analysis.

[dadagoboi]

You're better off taking investment advice from Charles Ponzi than listening to anything Eric Garland says. He's the same guy who has been predicting the collapse of Guitar Center any day now, for about three years. It may eventually happen, but not on his schedule.

We know Gibson is overextended, but I'm not buying Eric Garland's analysis.

Things must be dire if I'm quoting Uwe :

"In a range of 21 possible long-term bond ratings by Moody's, Gibson is now at the 4th lowest, the lowest meaning already bankruptcy, the second lowest indicating imminent bankruptcy. They are at "extremely speculative" now, the next downgrade will see them at "default imminent with little prospect for recovery". Gibson is now at a place very few companies ever return from."

[uwe]

I find it unsettling to be quoted by you without immediate contradiction! 

They will find someone who will give it another try eventually. Henry J - and I'm not saying that his reign has been terrible from day one, it wasn't - only got his hands on the company in the first place when they were already technically broke in the 80ies. Hopefully, someone from the current younger management who knows the company (and about guitar making) will step up and find a financier to help him do a (not over-)leveraged buy-out.

[Dave W]

Eric Garland enjoys predicting the imminent collapse of big companies. He enjoys being snarky about it too. So far, he's batting .000

Moody's expects Gibson to be able to refinance, just as GC did. I'll go with Moody's prediction. Of course if we hit another serious recession, anything goes. Henry could be forced out by creditors. But a guitar manufacturer owned by non-guitar investors isn't likely to bring back the Gibson of Ted McCarty.

[4stringer77]

Could be worse. At least they aren't being fined 14 billion from the justice department for the subprime mortgage crisis like Deutsche bank. Hope Uwe doesn't have too much tied up in there.

[Dave W]

Could be worse. At least they aren't being fined 14 billion from the state department for the subprime mortgage crisis like Deutsche bank. Hope Uwe doesn't have too much tied up in there.

That's the least of Deutsche Bank's problems. It's about to do a Lehman unless it's bailed out.

[uwe]

I accept the macro-economic necessity/wisdom of one large international German bank, but apart from that I have nothing tied up with Deutsche Bank. Back in the early 80ies, there was a Deutsche Bank branch on the campus I studied, I wanted to open a checking account there, it would have been convenient, cash machines were not yet prevalent. They refused though I even had regular - taxed - income from my peep show DJ/announcer job at, wait for it, Sex-Visionscenter GmbH, Frankfurt.

Maybe they didn't like my long hair either. In any case, I asked once and got turned down - "The Don never repeats an offer ...".  (Same reason why I don't have a private AmEx card to this day, they wouldn't have me back in the 80ies, but VISA and Mastercard would.) So to this day, I'm still with the "bank" that gave me a checking account back then: an utterly unglamerous Frankfurt loan & savings that probably can't even spell "investment banking". They don't bug me with opaque investment schemes either.

[TBird1958]

" Sex-Visionscenter GmbH"


Please, elaborate on this 

[Dave W]

" Sex-Visionscenter GmbH"


Please, elaborate on this 

He's mentioned it before. It must have been part of his pre-law curriculum.

[uwe]

It actually was in the CV I submitted when I interviewed with the firm in 1987 ... and I'm still there, nowadays closer to retirement than job interviews. I thought "better stick this in now rather than cover something up when there is nothing to cover up". Kurt Waldheim's, former UN General Secretary and Austrian President, memory lapses about his role in the Third Reich were all over the press back then and while I thought a paid job in a peep show rather innocent in comparison to service for the Third Reich, the "Waldheim-Affäre" was a textbook-instruction on how to not handle your past. (In the end, no personal wrongdoing other than membership in Nazi organisations and service in an anti-resistance military unit in the Balkans could be attributed to Waldheim, but his cover-ups and reluctant treatment of the truth as it trickled out had ruined his political career.)

All the "Sex-Visionscenter GmbH" in my CV did raise in the end was friendly to incredulous curiosity, the two (logical) main questions asked being "How much did you earn?" and"How were the girls?"

Answers:

1. Between Deutsche Mark 1.500 and 2.000 a month (minus income tax) for a six day week 6 pm to about 2 am (my tendency to be a late working night owl saw its foundations laid then) - with the hours longer when there were fairs in Frankfurt or pay day for the US Armed Forces. That was good money (probably an amount of US-$ 1.200 today, give or take ...) for a student of law in the early 80ies, but not nearly as much as many people thought you'd earn in Frankfurt's Red Light District. I could afford a small apartment, buy decent food and fashionable clothes plus fresh strings and fuel for my motorcycle (or car) for that, so I had no complaints.

2. All kinds and sizes. Fallen angels, part-time-hookers, damaged goods and eternal optimists, loving housewives and mothers, drama students from academic families in their summer break. Kirstin, the drama student - a card-carrying Gustav Mahler fan, she gave me his unfinished 9th Symphony as an LP, but (before you ask) our relationship remained platonic - was real hot.

[4stringer77]

Glad to hear your assets are covered Uwe. I was never too concerned, after all you have the best diversification possible with your Gibson collection. It's as good as gold right? 

[uwe]

I've never calculated it through, but the valuable models have meanwhile probably over-compensated the money I wasted on the Silly Purple Clown Bass and stuff! Goes to show that you should never collect with resale value in mind, all good things come to those who wait.