I haven't seen it, but I like the thought that it cost only 4 million bucks to make (and has made so far 30 million at the US box office which in my book is not horrible for that type of adult drama, Brokeback Mountain cost 14 million to make and grossed abour 80 million in the US and another 90 million in foreign markets, it was widely regarded as a commercial success) and might tell a story without all too quick judgements.
It's not the kind of movie to attract a teenage/twen audience (most 16-year olds of either sex don't have fantasies about Julianne Moore and Annette Bening making out with each other) and with those people out of the window it's hard to be commercially successful via ticket sales. DVD sales and rents is another matter, as that is the age-appropriate medium for a film like that (and you probably won't need a 3D-version!), it might still do well there. Some huge commercial box office flops have been viable commercially via DVD sales and rents.
Of course I'll watch it on DVD too. And I watched Avatar in the cinema because I thought it would only make sense seeing it there. Blockbusters have a place but perhaps it's not the Academy Awards which are after all about actors and acting, stories and storytelling.
